Santorum Wins Alabama And Mississippi, But He Didn’t Win Much

Rick Santorum can run around with his hair on fire telling everyone how he won the Alabama And Mississippi primaries, but a closer look at the numbers reveals his boasts to be wild exaggeration.  Sure, Santorum spent less money than Mitt Romney, but this isn’t a foot race, and the former Senator needs to realize that.

alabama-mississippi-hawaii-republican-primary-2012

In Alabama, Santorum scooped up 34.5% – meanwhile, Newt “I can’t believe I’m still in the race, either” Gingrich took 29.3% and Romney took an even 29%.  Without a doubt, Santorum won, but it’s not like he cleaned Romney’s clock by 10+ percentage points.  I’m also fairly certain I read somewhere that Romney didn’t campaign in Alabama…

The Mississippi numbers are even closer:  32.8% for Santorum, Gingrich in second again with 31.2% and Romney bringing up the rear with 30.6.  When the spread’s less than 2.5 points, the phrase “narrow victory” comes to mind.  Also, check out the balls on Gingrich:  “If you’re the front-runner and keep coming in third, you’re not much of a front-runner.”  Err… you know you didn’t come in first in anything last night, right?

Here’s the real problem:  the Republican primary is no longer a winner take all contest – just because you win a state doesn’t mean you get all of the delegates, and given that the contests have all been relatively close, it’s a fair to guess that the delegates will be divided up fairly evenly.  And even worse for Santorum and Gingrich, they’re way behind Romney in the delegate count, so dividing delegates nearly even with him isn’t a great way to eat up his lead.

republican-delegate-count-march-2012

As you can see, Romney is handing Santorum his ASS in total delegate count.  A 243 delegate count lead over your closest rival is a fairly significant beating, and while I understand that there are 1358 delegates left for the taking, it’s hard to believe that Santorum will ever be able to catch Romney, especially if about 30% of voters in Mississippi & Alabama are willing to vote for a Mormon.  If Santorum can’t blow Romney out in these states, then he’s never going to catch up.

more Election 2012 at creativejamie.com/category/election-2012/

About Jamie Insalaco

Jamie Insalaco is the author of CreativeJamie.com, BomberBanter.com and editor in chief of ComicBookClog.com

Posted on March 16, 2012, in election 2012, observations and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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